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Kazakhstan is poised to challenge OPEC+ in 2025 as it prepares to expand its Tengiz oilfield, potentially adding 260,000 barrels per day to its output. This comes amid a backdrop of weak oil demand growth and rising competition, with Kazakhstan's production expected to exceed 2 million barrels daily. The cartel's planned quota increases may not align with Kazakhstan's ambitions, complicating internal dynamics.
The bond market is poised to provide Germany with a substantial €400 billion for spending initiatives. This financial backing highlights the market's readiness to support the country's economic strategies.
China's central bank has maintained its medium-term lending rate at 2.0% to stabilize the yuan amid pressures following the U.S. presidential election. The People's Bank of China aims for gradual policy adjustments, with expectations of potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and a cautious approach to interest rate changes as it navigates economic challenges. The offshore yuan has depreciated over 3% since late September, prompting discussions on balancing economic revitalization with exchange rate stability.
Goldman Sachs anticipates a cautious approach from Asia's central banks regarding interest rate cuts, influenced by the strength of the US dollar and potential tariffs from the Trump administration. The Bank of Korea is expected to refrain from further rate reductions this week, while Indonesian officials have indicated limited capacity for lowering borrowing costs due to US political developments.
Maharashtra's BJP-led Mahayuti alliance victory is set to boost market sentiment, following a 2000-point rebound on the Sensex. The decisive mandate is expected to enhance infrastructure development, although fiscal pressures from pre-election measures may impact long-term growth. Analysts emphasize the need for increased government spending to counteract a slowdown in economic growth and corporate earnings.
China's central bank has decided to keep the one-year medium-term lending facility rate steady at 2% for the second consecutive month, following a cut in September. This decision aligns with the forecasts of all 14 economists surveyed, indicating a cautious approach to monetary stimulus.
Rate-setters are facing pressure to consider a rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with MPC member Nagesh Kumar advocating for this move. He argues that a reduction could stimulate demand and private investment, citing easing inflation, sluggish demand, and actions by other central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, as key factors.
Major U.S. indexes ended the week positively, with the Dow Jones up 2% and the Russell 2000 surging 4.5%, as investors shifted focus from large-cap tech to small- and mid-cap stocks. Despite Nvidia and Alphabet facing declines, Amazon's $4 billion investment in AI startup Anthropic highlights ongoing interest in the sector. At COP29, developed nations pledged $300 billion annually to combat climate change, significantly increasing their previous commitment.
UBS anticipates four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, prompting a recommendation to reduce exposure to European markets. Kelvin Tay from UBS Global Wealth Management highlights the potential impacts of this monetary policy shift on the European economic landscape.
01:08 25.11.2024
On November 13, 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index revealed an annual inflation rate of 2.6%, up from 2.4% the previous month, driven by base effects. Core inflation remained stable at 3.3%, while the services sector showed resilience with a 4.8% annual increase. Despite slight market corrections post-election, investors appear unconcerned about inflation, focusing instead on employment data, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policies.
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